Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Lamar vs. Incarnate Word
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9fd407417c829ac51c290b2ed5f73b32489c982da992ac03ecfd1837c7c1a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Incarnate Wordof Lamar, Incarnate Word
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Incarnate Word | 56c | 868.17$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.81 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Lamar | 43c | 690$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.7 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Lamar | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…a726backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 126$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb16…4ab5backed Lamar | 51c | 121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Lamar | 49c | 111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lamar | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…b4adbacked Lamar | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…6c13backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…bf38backed Lamar | 32c | 88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0492…7fc1backed Incarnate Word | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…5f73backed Lamar | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…70a0backed Lamar | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…ff97backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…f4f3backed Lamar | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…968ebacked Lamar | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06a…be87backed Lamar | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…ac6bbacked Incarnate Word | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5370…f0f0backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…b992backed Lamar | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…c8e2backed Lamar | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9a…1dfebacked Incarnate Word | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2a…e6cdbacked Incarnate Word | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5479…4c74backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…9126backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8273backed Lamar | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db2…5962backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…df94backed Lamar | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…bd58backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d1…3269backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…aec4backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…34cabacked Lamar | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…2c06backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…4475backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…1581backed Lamar | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…f86ebacked Lamar | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb3…8b6dbacked Incarnate Word | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeea…8921backed Lamar | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.