College Football · resolved market
Spread: Miami (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa031209bd4045790399c7e18384cc2ac6e7caf4941018932afb86369934792a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miamiof Miami, NC State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed NC State | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,200 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Miami | 52c | 30,250$15,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,519.95 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Miami | 52c | 20,227$10,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,708.96 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed NC State | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Miami | 50c | 4,999$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.27 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NC State | 48c | 4,863$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.46 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed NC State | 48c | 3,438$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.02 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed NC State | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Miami | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed NC State | 47c | 817.84$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.38 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed NC State | 48c | 548.38$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.87 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Miami | 52c | 321.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.11 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed NC State | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Miami | 51c | 234.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked NC State | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked NC State | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37a…50f2backed NC State | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked NC State | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed NC State | 48c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Miami | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Miami | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked NC State | 47c | 70.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Miami | 53c | 50.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed NC State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5b…8882backed NC State | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami (-14.5)this page
- NC State vs. MiamiMiami won
- Spread: Miami (-15.5)Miami won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.