Tennis · resolved market
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elise Mertens vs Ella Seidel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa04f22aba5feda493d1d090417a0d56e354402782b83a2a03c01dd1e72bc0f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elise Mertensof Elise Mertens, Ella Seidel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Ella Seidel | 5c | 9,075$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.85 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Ella Seidel | 8c | 7,868$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.56 | 279 | 31.9%89 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ella Seidel | 11c | 7,070$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.58 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ella Seidel | 5c | 2,929$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ella Seidel | 17c | 2,454$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.49 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Ella Seidel | 16c | 1,899$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.87 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Ella Seidel | 15c | 1,695$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Ella Seidel | 2c | 1,613$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Ella Seidel | 3c | 1,581$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ella Seidel | 7c | 1,301$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Ella Seidel | 14c | 1,050$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ella Seidel | 2c | 1,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Ella Seidel | 16c | 823.57$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Ella Seidel | 8c | 621.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 392 | 38.8%152 W · 240 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Ella Seidel | 15c | 504.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…b7c8backed Elise Mertens | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Elise Mertens | 79c | 296.22$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 249 | 65.1%162 W · 87 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Ella Seidel | 16c | 284.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…5e77backed Ella Seidel | 14c | 243.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…4a98backed Ella Seidel | 5c | 219.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b98…2919backed Ella Seidel | 12c | 214.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Ella Seidel | 19c | 177.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 405 | 48.1%195 W · 210 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Ella Seidel | 19c | 177.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Ella Seidel | 15c | 173.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…6834backed Ella Seidel | 14c | 141.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…5375backed Elise Mertens | 79c | 112.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Ella Seidel | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Ella Seidel | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Ella Seidel | 16c | 81.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ella Seidel | 15c | 66.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…cebfbacked Elise Mertens | 79c | 49.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 671 | 78.7%528 W · 143 L | +49.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…4874backed Elise Mertens | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 918 | 80.5%739 W · 179 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…7bc0backed Ella Seidel | 22c | 47.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1808…bc62backed Elise Mertens | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Elise Mertens | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elise Mertens vs Ella Seidelthis page
- Elise Mertens vs. Ella Seidel: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Mertens vs SeidelMertens won
- Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5)Mertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.