Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa6cfdef1437a247fd362d1e220b4fb0261d2c217f97ab3e6328dcf58d87d852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 64c | 315.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…bb3abacked Yes | 4c | 270.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…af86backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…6536backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 53c | 188.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 13c | 188.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 8c | 178.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 21c | 152.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 15c | 149.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 20c | 75.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 53.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 22c | 45.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 70c | 42.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…c523backed Yes | 66c | 38.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 75c | 34.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 34c | 30.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 76c | 28.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 53c | 22.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd266…f250backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 80c | 18.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 29°F or below on February 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.