Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab0737325f3f15e8132d1d48e3e2b30957e876ae0352fd2aab41e35ad058bddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x869b…c625backed No | 71c | 25,076$17,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,288.78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 29c | 11,240$3,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,259.6 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 29c | 5,805$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.51 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 5,093$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.41 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 71c | 3,761$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.19 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 70c | 3,242$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.56 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 29c | 3,002$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.5 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 29c | 2,663$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.55 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,656$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.38 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 838$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.96 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 30c | 433.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 303.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 27c | 234.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Yes | 31c | 77.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…779dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 31c | 52.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Yes | 31c | 50.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 36.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 364 | 62.9%229 W · 135 L | +32.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Sheffield United FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.