Tennis · resolved market
ITF Darmstadt: Francesca Curmi vs Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab4afe52f39580268b4a6b3be91ce00a2072a2b16d5230792d8a424bd273d770
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Francesca Curmiof Francesca Curmi, Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Francesca Curmi | 56c | 538.64$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 45c | 497.95$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.97 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 36c | 494.27$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Francesca Curmi | 66c | 336$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Francesca Curmi | 58c | 254.37$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f40…16c7backed Francesca Curmi | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 15c | 102.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Francesca Curmi | 54c | 96.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Francesca Curmi | 54c | 81.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Francesca Curmi | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Francesca Curmi | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Francesca Curmi | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 357 | 47.9%171 W · 186 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…b543backed Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 43c | 37.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Francesca Curmi | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 43c | 30.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Francesca Curmi | 56c | 23.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Francesca Curmi | 56c | 19.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.