Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Indiana State vs. Murray State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb5a9a025e7781ad932dafb8b48d54f36a9898d321b3b400257d7ba7b73bedc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murray Stateof Indiana State, Murray State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Indiana State | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x262e…69e9backed Indiana State | 31c | 431$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…6309backed Murray State | 69c | 286$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5862…1e07backed Indiana State | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4276…7e00backed Murray State | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…f54bbacked Murray State | 69c | 106$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460f…8d1cbacked Indiana State | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…020abacked Indiana State | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d2…bbccbacked Murray State | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…895cbacked Murray State | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…95a0backed Murray State | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b61…33e2backed Murray State | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…4e08backed Indiana State | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bf…cc79backed Indiana State | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…5118backed Murray State | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c71…83c4backed Indiana State | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a19…0cc1backed Indiana State | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…abebbacked Murray State | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…c0d1backed Indiana State | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x280a…78cabacked Murray State | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6355…69c2backed Murray State | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5435…fc73backed Indiana State | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…6c3cbacked Indiana State | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…5e9bbacked Murray State | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…9c98backed Murray State | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…221dbacked Murray State | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…dff1backed Murray State | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…1797backed Murray State | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…253abacked Murray State | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…849ebacked Murray State | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffdc…900ebacked Murray State | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…d7ebbacked Murray State | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.