Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacf527a982ba44c14744b1ec74eb54f6d9355610046e2306ca66b565ba13ef28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, NAVI Junior
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,852 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed AVULUS | 75c | 1,858$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.27 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed NAVI Junior | 38c | 1,555$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.67 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed NAVI Junior | 21c | 611.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed NAVI Junior | 21c | 526.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf95…fb2ebacked NAVI Junior | 5c | 432.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NAVI Junior | 32c | 421.32$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed AVULUS | 67c | 391.16$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked NAVI Junior | 55c | 332.72$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.68 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed NAVI Junior | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed NAVI Junior | 55c | 288.69$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NAVI Junior | 17c | 275.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked NAVI Junior | 23c | 240.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed NAVI Junior | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…d65bbacked AVULUS | 66c | 198$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed NAVI Junior | 11c | 190.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed AVULUS | 58c | 180.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AVULUS | 72c | 176.16$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked NAVI Junior | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed NAVI Junior | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed AVULUS | 33c | 126.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked NAVI Junior | 24c | 106.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NAVI Junior | 18c | 103.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 62c | 100.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked AVULUS | 68c | 73.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked AVULUS | 71c | 66.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…c695backed NAVI Junior | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed NAVI Junior | 55c | 34.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AVULUS | 76c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Group AAVULUS won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs NAVI Junior - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.