Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona vs. Baylor
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed98bc0d2bca99ac04fdd606775da3ae4db6a52fae01bab81880f200de0c52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizonaof Arizona, Baylor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Arizona | 50c | 21,811$11,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,803.44 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Baylor | 36c | 13,989$5,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080.07 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Baylor | 52c | 11,900$6,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,219.88 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Baylor | 16c | 5,170$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.63 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Arizona | 62c | 2,243$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.62 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Baylor | 56c | 1,789$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Baylor | 56c | 1,435$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arizona | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Arizona | 48c | 917.34$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…d3c3backed Arizona | 54c | 374.08$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Baylor | 53c | 374$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Baylor | 23c | 349$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Arizona | 45c | 311.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7febbacked Arizona | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Arizona | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Arizona | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…b7fdbacked Arizona | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…66d8backed Baylor | 55c | 130.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Baylor | 52c | 120.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9e…67c6backed Baylor | 51c | 89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Arizona | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Arizona | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Baylor | 58c | 59.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Arizona | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…a03bbacked Arizona | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Baylor | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…325bbacked Arizona | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…c4fabacked Arizona | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…13c0backed Arizona | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…cd81backed Arizona | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Arizona | 45c | 26.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Baylor | 55c | 26.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…4a74backed Baylor | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.