Asian League · resolved market
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb14df294f3cd2b2d05535a62e04fc0e0bb2ffced0731bcbe923aca14fa7e9ee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 4,475$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.75 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 1,809$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.47 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7469…cbc5backed Under | 46c | 1,739$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 55c | 1,089$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.48 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 51c | 616.42$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.42 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e3…fbb2backed Under | 44c | 536.97$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 54c | 486.17$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.01 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 55c | 291.9$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 56c | 243.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 56c | 230.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 202.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 56c | 195.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 56c | 195.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 144.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 56c | 141.12$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 54c | 134.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 54c | 124.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 67c | 91.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 56c | 87.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 55c | 79.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 54c | 75.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 73.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 55c | 67.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 32c | 59.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 32c | 56.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 49c | 55.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 51c | 54.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 49.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 58c | 42.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 34c | 39.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 54c | 38.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 54c | 38.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Under | 52c | 37.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 39c | 34.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 54c | 33.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 43c | 31.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 55c | 30.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Over | 57c | 30.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…a471backed Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 45c | 24.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…1f3ebacked Over | 54c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.