Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Vallejo (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb16453c23d4814fc47a087028d7c0eb7e2117a578260a2755149d503fd2cb1fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vallejoof Vallejo, Martinez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Martinez | 43c | 956.05$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.27 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Vallejo | 59c | 494.38$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.84 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Martinez | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 340 | 47.4%161 W · 179 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Vallejo | 59c | 337.26$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Martinez | 43c | 312.94$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6c…d56cbacked Vallejo | 49c | 239.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 244 | 51.6%126 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…78edbacked Vallejo | 59c | 238.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Martinez | 64c | 228.67$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1b…67d3backed Vallejo | 62c | 172.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Vallejo | 54c | 131.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Vallejo | 36c | 115$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Martinez | 40c | 101.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Martinez | 43c | 82.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Vallejo | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Martinez | 40c | 66.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Martinez | 55c | 65.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Vallejo | 59c | 56.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Vallejo | 72c | 55.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 352 | 48.6%171 W · 181 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Vallejo | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 135 | 63%85 W · 50 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Vallejo | 35c | 43.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…8107backed Vallejo | 62c | 43.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Vallejo | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Vallejo | 69c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Martinez | 40c | 26.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Vallejo | 60c | 26.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Vallejo (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5)this page
- Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Pedro MartinezAdolfo Vallejo won
- Vallejo vs. Martinez: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.