Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb184411163abd564e5f288ddaa4e3b97298dd9d266840c51fc4045d69b536fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vissel Kōbeof Shimizu S-Pulse, Vissel Kōbe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bfd…f70ebacked Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 258.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b9…6782backed Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 245.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…f54fbacked Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 245.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f60…3ab8backed Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 243.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…8431backed Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 243.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…504fbacked Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 243.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…6f34backed Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 242.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca45…8af9backed Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 241.95$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…0b41backed Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 240.47$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…3870backed Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 237.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…43fbbacked Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 235.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…74bfbacked Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 232.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd7…934abacked Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 231.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…2b84backed Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 227.06$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…a5cbbacked Vissel Kōbe | 51c | 218.26$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.