Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Houston vs. Arizona
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb462b246b7f2fec69edc95749de0f4693afbbc78490d042b14150f4c7989dafd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Houston, Arizona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Arizona | 58c | 8,958$5,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,166.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Houston | 45c | 4,322$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.31 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Arizona | 57c | 2,025$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.43 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…6ec7backed Arizona | 43c | 1,860$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7febbacked Houston | 38c | 536.32$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Houston | 50c | 300.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc712…fdb9backed Arizona | 53c | 202$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…0f75backed Houston | 47c | 151$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…e875backed Houston | 48c | 100.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…5b26backed Houston | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…a396backed Houston | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…b96ebacked Houston | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…d48dbacked Arizona | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…cba2backed Houston | 50c | 53.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…3f97backed Houston | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad7…442fbacked Arizona | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0901…b944backed Arizona | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb8…0223backed Arizona | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Houston | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…a1a8backed Houston | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…65b1backed Arizona | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Arizona | 42c | 32.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bc…d29dbacked Arizona | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…55eebacked Houston | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.