Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5e150db55a759852c2ce46b51e876ebc75f630fd04ac0519a5e1bbc84700f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Resilienceof Team Resilience, Cloud Rising
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 1,564$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Cloud Rising | 12c | 1,240$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Cloud Rising | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…eec9backed Cloud Rising | 11c | 1,153$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Cloud Rising | 11c | 947.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Cloud Rising | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Cloud Rising | 19c | 849.94$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Cloud Rising | 12c | 789.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Cloud Rising | 13c | 711.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Cloud Rising | 12c | 481.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Cloud Rising | 13c | 475.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…d788backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 412.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Cloud Rising | 12c | 394.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6302backed Cloud Rising | 13c | 239.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Cloud Rising | 12c | 209.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Team Resilience | 55c | 170.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Rising | 16c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Team Resilience | 80c | 103.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Cloud Rising | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - DreamLeague China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5)Team Resilience won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.