Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f6b272d851e566ba4fbc70a72de7fbfc27ccd00e0f188ea092212ad657dc41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 7,398$5,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,256.43 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 32c | 5,855$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 5,107$3,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.14 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 26c | 2,500$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Yes | 46c | 1,600$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 47c | 1,247$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.97 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Yes | 30c | 1,196$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 47c | 1,057$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…bcfcbacked Yes | 58c | 955.06$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 57c | 830$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.1 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 29c | 602.35$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 345.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 69c | 264.07$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 39c | 234$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 46c | 222$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 54c | 102.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed No | 55c | 72.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 28c | 55.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 35c | 54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 46c | 28.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…8923backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 46c | 26.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 46c | 23.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…6921backed No | 57c | 21.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…bbdbbacked No | 57c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…1b31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Albirex Niigata win on 2025-12-06?No won
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. Albirex Niigata end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.