Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San Francisco Dons vs. Memphis Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb698dda7b6f396161ebafa9078f70b474535ef05db24d6e98fb60f01ab678558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Memphis Tigersof San Francisco Dons, Memphis Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Francisco Dons | 44c | 2,175$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.81 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Memphis Tigers | 56c | 1,588$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.8 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Memphis Tigers | 57c | 1,429$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.57 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Dons | 43c | 1,137$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.85 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed San Francisco Dons | 30c | 895$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Memphis Tigers | 70c | 890$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.8 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed San Francisco Dons | 44c | 541.25$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed San Francisco Dons | 44c | 386.36$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Memphis Tigers | 58c | 379.32$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.97 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Memphis Tigers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Memphis Tigers | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed San Francisco Dons | 45c | 23.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.