Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Denver vs. North Dakota
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a2ce12f2221e0ae4f7b1de4ab42b915f106fcd90551e69677c92362f6e3342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Denverof Denver, North Dakota
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed North Dakota | 18c | 1,639$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.83 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked North Dakota | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Denver | 78c | 219.18$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…2ed6backed North Dakota | 50c | 193$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…8383backed Denver | 50c | 189$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…3dd5backed North Dakota | 50c | 133$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…f838backed North Dakota | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…f8bbbacked Denver | 50c | 128$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…7be4backed North Dakota | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…dcbebacked Denver | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…892dbacked Denver | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff3…ff34backed North Dakota | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Denver | 43c | 93.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…3655backed North Dakota | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…9deabacked Denver | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Denver | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…06acbacked Denver | 22c | 57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Denver | 20c | 50.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…44ebbacked Denver | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f8…3e9dbacked Denver | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…93a5backed North Dakota | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6212…241cbacked Denver | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked North Dakota | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35d…a916backed North Dakota | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143b…154fbacked Denver | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…7d24backed North Dakota | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2385…1abdbacked North Dakota | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27e…55f3backed Denver | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…6817backed Denver | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcace…4a5bbacked North Dakota | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…da2ebacked North Dakota | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…f43fbacked North Dakota | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…4423backed North Dakota | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c0…38e7backed North Dakota | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…fb28backed North Dakota | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…3516backed North Dakota | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.