Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Ilbirs eSports (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb814f61993b98881300c37451166a77e4d90d6725dbffb0faf4c1ac3b23864bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ilbirs eSports | 0c | 3,729$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked L1ga Team | 72c | 1,936$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.3 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1142…a68abacked Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 1,846$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 1,097$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0143backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 1,050$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f74…63c5backed L1ga Team | 78c | 680$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…66aebacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 620$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 611.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3d…afd9backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 420$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…27b7backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 410$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…162abacked L1ga Team | 78c | 370$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7985…982fbacked L1ga Team | 78c | 360$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 313.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…26f9backed L1ga Team | 78c | 270$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4549…7cefbacked L1ga Team | 78c | 260$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…45d8backed L1ga Team | 78c | 260$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed L1ga Team | 74c | 253.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 186$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…0128backed Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 185.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…32d6backed L1ga Team | 80c | 174.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked L1ga Team | 75c | 165.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12e…ca08backed L1ga Team | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…2ec6backed L1ga Team | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…27f4backed Ilbirs eSports | 12c | 130.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed L1ga Team | 76c | 116.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…56adbacked L1ga Team | 78c | 115.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed L1ga Team | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked L1ga Team | 77c | 76.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 66.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked L1ga Team | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed L1ga Team | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…5d35backed L1ga Team | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed L1ga Team | 57c | 44.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…89b0backed L1ga Team | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.