Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO5) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ab2154b295bc7b700e33762f59c9979fecc8584b5dde900f8c577e9f4a0a33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Carstensz, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Carstensz | 61c | 566.64$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.57 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Carstensz | 43c | 407.27$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.36 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Ivory | 55c | 399.82$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Carstensz | 41c | 387.15$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.87 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ivory | 53c | 310.17$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.39 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Ivory | 37c | 191.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Ivory | 68c | 155$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Carstensz | 25c | 101.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Ivory | 48c | 94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ivory | 65c | 90.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 75c | 88.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Carstensz | 40c | 59.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Ivory | 58c | 54.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Carstensz | 46c | 52.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…0fa8backed Ivory | 58c | 50.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Carstensz | 45c | 48.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ivory | 38c | 43.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…8c5fbacked Ivory | 58c | 36.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Ivory | 56c | 33.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Ivory | 58c | 29.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO5) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 3 WinnerIvory won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 4 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.