Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ad0e61e6c0bde4a8db7df9fb84ffde22e07e1d3d7a3ddc904a53a93af8abf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 921.73$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.72 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 11c | 582.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 152 | 26.3%40 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 575.7$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.1 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 5c | 504.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 25c | 493.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 5c | 245.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 231.52$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 44c | 99.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 45c | 73.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Yes | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbef4…2ff5backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 75c | 46.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 43c | 36.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2c…c7a7backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7995…2b6bbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed No | 56c | 28.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-07?No won
- Will FC Alverca vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.