NHL · resolved market
AHL: Bridgeport Islanders vs. Springfield Thunderbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb966d4ae52c03d309e90825de14c97a83695962d3aa54ee87c6fd74eda2c36c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Springfield Thunderbirdsof Bridgeport Islanders, Springfield Thunderbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Bridgeport Islanders | 1c | 1,672$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Bridgeport Islanders | 58c | 310.81$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…3415backed Bridgeport Islanders | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 42c | 256.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 41c | 246.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Bridgeport Islanders | 57c | 226.34$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 41c | 225.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 43c | 210$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Bridgeport Islanders | 58c | 191.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Bridgeport Islanders | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 44c | 149.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Bridgeport Islanders | 55c | 119.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 42c | 100.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bridgeport Islanders | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.