CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9698862eb1478481c8a171c112fda2c20b63d4a14633f3fce9b9506799695aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, AM Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed AM Gaming | 22c | 1,162$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.73 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed illwill | 78c | 1,104$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.08 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked AM Gaming | 33c | 732.56$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 275 | 30.9%85 W · 190 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed illwill | 79c | 570.83$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed AM Gaming | 22c | 515.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed illwill | 79c | 324.72$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed illwill | 68c | 273.32$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked AM Gaming | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed illwill | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked illwill | 67c | 175.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 2,223 | 47.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L | -5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked illwill | 79c | 151$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,723 | 46.8%807 W · 916 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed illwill | 69c | 125$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked illwill | 68c | 106.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…86bebacked illwill | 79c | 103.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked illwill | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked AM Gaming | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 339 | 39.2%133 W · 206 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…723ebacked AM Gaming | 21c | 99.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked AM Gaming | 25c | 97.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked AM Gaming | 26c | 80.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked AM Gaming | 28c | 52.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed illwill | 78c | 42.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 78c | 33.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed illwill | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winnerillwill won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.