South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Puebla leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96e832a52dd71f70b8ce09bdfba0f1e0976239026fba1888077ab9639d01087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 2,097$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.99 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 32c | 467.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.2 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 393.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…1d97backed Yes | 74c | 202.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 50c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…6c08backed Yes | 68c | 28.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 65c | 26.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 64c | 17.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6be7backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Puebla leading at halftime?this page
- CF Cruz Azul leading at halftime?No won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Puebla: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.