CS2 · resolved market
Will Astralis win ESL Pro League Season 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9243f8b8d885d194e716db42eb398bd57e29b28296226f0c2fe4b53f887c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,745 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7337…1fafbacked Yes | 26c | 1,447$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 190 | 22.6%43 W · 147 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed No | 74c | 1,300$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.93 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 9c | 694.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 291 | 27.5%80 W · 211 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad19…b625backed Yes | 22c | 373.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2649…9d3cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc0…fb20backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 20c | 230.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0311…f80ebacked Yes | 22c | 208.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 24c | 194.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 76c | 190.69$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Yes | 21c | 124.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Yes | 26c | 98.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 428 | 45.6%195 W · 233 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Yes | 19c | 96.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 71.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 71.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 60.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ef9fbacked Yes | 20c | 58.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 142 | 62%88 W · 54 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…0486backed No | 80c | 36.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 368 | 46.7%172 W · 196 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…34b8backed No | 79c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Astralis win ESL Pro League Season 23?this page
- Will Aurora Gaming win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will FUT Esports win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will Legacy win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will MOUZ win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win ESL Pro League Season 23?Yes won
- Will Team Spirit win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.