Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C or below on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc3fea313151eaa534f45ee86a4d280b71440be60e0e75ba9a26e693511788cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,098 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed No | 1c | 3,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed No | 1c | 2,660$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 1c | 1,972$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 3c | 1,151$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36d…3654backed No | 2c | 1,120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,050$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked Yes | 15c | 988.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 2c | 701.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed Yes | 9c | 599.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +971.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 4c | 458.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 5c | 408.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356f…639fbacked No | 19c | 252$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +185%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…5534backed No | 5c | 193.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 11c | 131.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 62c | 100.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 19c | 91.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…6b2dbacked Yes | 73c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C or below on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.