Tennis · resolved market
Augsburg: Mika Brunold vs Ergi Kirkin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd9a0f0ff49b4323a78dcdb5eb221e96f4b579381b4238a75ff47ced910a8daf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mika Brunoldof Mika Brunold, Ergi Kirkin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ergi Kirkin | 1c | 12,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Ergi Kirkin | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Ergi Kirkin | 10c | 1,794$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Ergi Kirkin | 3c | 1,553$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…97dabacked Ergi Kirkin | 23c | 1,220$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Mika Brunold | 73c | 1,028$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.17 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…3d80backed Ergi Kirkin | 27c | 740.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 144 | 39.6%57 W · 87 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Ergi Kirkin | 13c | 737.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 483 | 31.1%150 W · 333 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ergi Kirkin | 27c | 600$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.62 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Ergi Kirkin | 29c | 500$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Ergi Kirkin | 22c | 495$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Mika Brunold | 72c | 472.33$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Mika Brunold | 75c | 292.03$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…68b6backed Ergi Kirkin | 17c | 274.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 112 | 14.3%16 W · 96 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Mika Brunold | 79c | 252.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Ergi Kirkin | 25c | 181.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Ergi Kirkin | 25c | 181.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…3798backed Ergi Kirkin | 14c | 169.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Ergi Kirkin | 30c | 169.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Ergi Kirkin | 25c | 146.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Mika Brunold | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Mika Brunold | 72c | 113$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Ergi Kirkin | 30c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Ergi Kirkin | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed Ergi Kirkin | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Mika Brunold | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Ergi Kirkin | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Mika Brunold | 75c | 54.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Mika Brunold | 80c | 41.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed Mika Brunold | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Mika Brunold | 73c | 34.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…e05fbacked Mika Brunold | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Mika Brunold | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Mika Brunold | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…faacbacked Mika Brunold | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…57adbacked Mika Brunold | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.