CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbda36a3eeb200cc63ca3a62ce313bff8ad892cef10b94aea41654bcdc0d2c355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Acend, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde8f…2c72backed Ursa | 57c | 4,810$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.58 | 280 | 56.4%158 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa | 56c | 2,812$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.54 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Acend | 40c | 2,143$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.01 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Ursa | 59c | 1,654$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.58 | 209 | 46.9%98 W · 111 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Acend | 41c | 1,387$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.83 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…6628backed Acend | 44c | 1,195$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Acend | 40c | 983.37$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.01 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Acend | 44c | 699.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb996…038cbacked Acend | 44c | 552.19$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.06 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Acend | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Acend | 45c | 478.33$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.85 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Acend | 33c | 469.81$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 576 | 41.1%237 W · 339 L | -21.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Ursa | 63c | 461.95$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.02 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Acend | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Acend | 38c | 350.63$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Acend | 38c | 295.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…0880backed Acend | 45c | 238.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Acend | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 56c | 220.15$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Acend | 43c | 198.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Acend | 27c | 193.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 305 | 27.5%84 W · 221 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5229…2befbacked Ursa | 51c | 170.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Acend | 42c | 163.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Ursa | 57c | 152$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…4c34backed Acend | 46c | 151.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Acend | 41c | 149.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked Ursa | 57c | 128.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Ursa | 56c | 119.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked Acend | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Acend | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…5e80backed Acend | 43c | 98.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Acend | 54c | 95.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked Ursa | 58c | 94.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40c0…9bdabacked Ursa | 60c | 81.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Acend | 44c | 81.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Acend | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Acend | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Acend | 24c | 63.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Acend | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Acend | 45c | 58.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Ursa | 57c | 56.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…18dfbacked Acend | 45c | 55.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked Acend | 45c | 53.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…c3b4backed Ursa | 58c | 50.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 339 | 50.7%172 W · 167 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…13a1backed Ursa | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Ursa | 79c | 43.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Acend | 36c | 41.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 58c | 33.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…1761backed Acend | 45c | 33.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed Acend | 46c | 31.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Ursa | 59c | 30.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Ursa | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Ursa | 55c | 29.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…b4d3backed Ursa | 57c | 29.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…5704backed Ursa | 57c | 26.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Ursa | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Ursa | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 164 | 61.6%101 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Ursa | 66c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Ursa | 77c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed Ursa | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Ursa | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.