Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe5eaffd811185d2cf72573c29ac67c0785f68517e5a0c9ab1ea897283dddfd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 0c | 5,586$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 922.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 22c | 212.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 7c | 176.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 23c | 158.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…259ebacked Yes | 23c | 137.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 77c | 133.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 115.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 107.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 102.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 21c | 96.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 31c | 83.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 17c | 78.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 75c | 64.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 61.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 59.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 49.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 74c | 41.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 78c | 29.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 78c | 27.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 23.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 79c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 79c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 79c | 22.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 79c | 22.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 21.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 78c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 79c | 13.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 57°F or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.