TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Leo Vithoontien

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hikaru Shiraishiof Hikaru Shiraishi, Leo Vithoontien
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,686 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7547…d158backed Leo Vithoontien34c396.84$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.317,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Leo Vithoontien14c328.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.368,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07d…b1dfbacked Hikaru Shiraishi69c261.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.12,38355.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L+49.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Leo Vithoontien31c255.37$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Leo Vithoontien32c240$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.819740.6%80 W · 117 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Hikaru Shiraishi65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Hikaru Shiraishi71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8536349.6%180 W · 183 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Hikaru Shiraishi67c104.78$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.811,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Hikaru Shiraishi68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.11,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa276…dcfabacked Hikaru Shiraishi67c89.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.194652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Hikaru Shiraishi72c79.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Leo Vithoontien28c78.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf006…bb6cbacked Leo Vithoontien34c69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.174641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Hikaru Shiraishi69c68.93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3750958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3a2…8ff7backed Leo Vithoontien32c63.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4639443.9%173 W · 221 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Hikaru Shiraishi65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7794058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e71…e570backed Hikaru Shiraishi69c30.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.49580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b2…6a58backed Hikaru Shiraishi67c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.597261.1%44 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6b3…5821backed Hikaru Shiraishi68c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.658561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Hikaru Shiraishi79c14.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9624637.4%92 W · 154 L-0.9wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.