Lol · resolved market
LoL: EXILE esports vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc252e316726c6d0dca3eb6cb9b0dfcaf19338080d06341bdc2b5f963ad7d2abc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- eSubaof EXILE esports, eSuba
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed EXILE esports | 1c | 3,979$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7db…ee3ebacked EXILE esports | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…ac38backed EXILE esports | 16c | 2,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.75 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…4b3fbacked eSuba | 80c | 1,739$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.83 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed eSuba | 80c | 1,077$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.35 | 403 | 70.2%283 W · 120 L | +31.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed EXILE esports | 2c | 1,009$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…692bbacked EXILE esports | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…ca2abacked EXILE esports | 30c | 717.24$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked eSuba | 70c | 566.28$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.22 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked EXILE esports | 16c | 415.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed EXILE esports | 15c | 387.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked EXILE esports | 17c | 316$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1,447 | 13.3%192 W · 1,255 L | -109.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed EXILE esports | 15c | 309.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed EXILE esports | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…6c2abacked eSuba | 71c | 184.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked eSuba | 78c | 181.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked EXILE esports | 22c | 181.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 520 | 49.2%256 W · 264 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…fd51backed eSuba | 80c | 171.88$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked EXILE esports | 14c | 139.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 474 | 44.1%209 W · 265 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…600ebacked eSuba | 80c | 137$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked EXILE esports | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 276 | 32.6%90 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed EXILE esports | 16c | 93.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked eSuba | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed eSuba | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: EXILE esports vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffsthis page
- Game Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs EXILE esports (+1.5)eSuba won
- LoL: EXILE esports vs eSuba - Game 1 WinnereSuba won
- LoL: EXILE esports vs eSuba - Game 3 WinnereSuba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.