La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc253fe6563d5ae1c5244f83dddfa3a4256ada0ee12926ac3e73e88ecc4da6a92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,598 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,310$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Yes | 16c | 485.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 16c | 420.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 172 | 52.3%90 W · 82 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 16c | 249.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 16c | 249.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 16c | 249.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 16c | 244$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 15c | 205.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 319 | 52.4%167 W · 152 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ef10backed Yes | 16c | 190.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 6c | 184.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 13c | 174.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 15c | 136.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 135.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…c4b2backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…9d6bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 14c | 116.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 213 | 22.1%47 W · 166 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 17c | 95.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 17c | 66.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd1…1e86backed Yes | 18c | 56.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will UD Las Palmas vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?No won
- Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.