Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc34292dafba66897b2f458a4f95771661e435117e6ff132d5f562ce8274b7652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 27c | 862.72$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.51 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 77c | 218.3$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 146.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 15c | 94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 74c | 83.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 74c | 27.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 74c | 27.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 74c | 27.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 74c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 74c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 74c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 74c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 74c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.