Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Iowa vs. Illinois
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc464b01203ff7836d090c161e9211d9f3894ba34bead5665080422a49536ce79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Iowa, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Iowa | 19c | 482$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…faafbacked Iowa | 20c | 167$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9737…0817backed Iowa | 20c | 113$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…63e9backed Illinois | 80c | 113$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…e3ddbacked Illinois | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…9de7backed Illinois | 79c | 87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…4c40backed Iowa | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…e654backed Iowa | 17c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2be…b5f1backed Iowa | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267a…d9ecbacked Iowa | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…9960backed Illinois | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…8a8bbacked Iowa | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…b117backed Illinois | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…46b6backed Illinois | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…2178backed Illinois | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…b0f1backed Illinois | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…60ccbacked Illinois | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003e…3a12backed Illinois | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…ea8bbacked Illinois | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…d316backed Illinois | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…674abacked Illinois | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc396…2c95backed Illinois | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…920ebacked Illinois | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…2c2abacked Illinois | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.