Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5aaba128b43db529158711dd0a9b9abf430099fc9c62365f9d1c7d4f79a2ad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 74c | 268.89$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…487cbacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 20c | 116.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 91.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 35c | 84.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 23c | 78.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 77.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 21c | 67.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 22c | 50.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 57c | 48.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 74c | 47.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 43.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 32c | 40.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 77c | 36.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 76c | 35.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 72c | 23.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 66c | 23.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 79c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…d99abacked No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed Yes | 75c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.