Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Essence vs Satan666 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc67e8b6fd0b63dc838335dee307b37d386a98edaf8439b2a7cead9852c67fcff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Satan666of Team Essence, Satan666
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Satan666 | 47c | 521.64$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.52 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Team Essence | 50c | 490.59$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.05 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Satan666 | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Satan666 | 53c | 337.61$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.75 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Essence | 47c | 322.39$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed Team Essence | 54c | 274.79$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Team Essence | 53c | 98.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Essence | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…9377backed Satan666 | 74c | 52.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed Team Essence | 54c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Satan666 | 62c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Satan666 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Satan666 (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageSatan666 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.