Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c7945ff24e48e03d45727b75d908311eb4b09b2bdb837eb96ac8fbb153dd0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 37c | 4,000$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 2,092$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.5 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 63c | 1,961$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 37c | 1,305$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.85 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 5c | 1,177$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 931.06$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.67 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 514$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.18 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Yes | 11c | 451.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 63c | 250$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 64c | 199.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 64c | 184$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…f554backed No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed No | 63c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will FC Metz vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.