Tennis · resolved market
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Kursumlijska Banja 13 (Serbia), clay: Andrea Motta vs Antoni Fabre
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ca53b50324babfcb8192c1355e2983bc691df3a97cfcd506269751b8da170a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andrea Mottaof Andrea Motta, Antoni Fabre
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x615b…9591backed Andrea Motta | 37c | 849.16$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Antoni Fabre | 49c | 660.26$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.03 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Andrea Motta | 63c | 513.3$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.71 | 501 | 56.9%285 W · 216 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Andrea Motta | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 1,398 | 39.1%546 W · 852 L | -25.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Antoni Fabre | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 395 | 53.9%213 W · 182 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…e58cbacked Antoni Fabre | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Antoni Fabre | 54c | 80.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 8,921 | 42.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L | -169.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Andrea Motta | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 877 | 38.2%335 W · 542 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…5c03backed Antoni Fabre | 58c | 61.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 413 | 57.9%239 W · 174 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Antoni Fabre | 59c | 51.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 536 | 47%252 W · 284 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd3…c489backed Andrea Motta | 41c | 44.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Andrea Motta | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 249 | 73.5%183 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Antoni Fabre | 42c | 37.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,856 | 46.8%868 W · 988 L | -55.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Andrea Motta | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,109 | 48%532 W · 577 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Antoni Fabre | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,952 | 55.1%2,176 W · 1,776 L | +107.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Andrea Motta | 45c | 26.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 726 | 38.3%278 W · 448 L | -34.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.