MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6db4e914ec68fa55e1205caac3452be9fddd5dcba021bd79f3241a53c3cf153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,514 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Athletics | 43c | 301$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 235.09$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Athletics | 44c | 225$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 219.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.42 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Athletics | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Athletics | 42c | 187.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 185.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Athletics | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 89.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 75.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 50.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Athletics | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…23a0backed Athletics | 75c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 25.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Athletics | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 22.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.