Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc890f7347eb69e81fd2d77b0c982408dd6216513753b0c1a23bd43832a80288f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 13,081$7,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,332.76 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,499.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 52c | 4,079$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 4,036$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.56 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 42c | 2,500$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 42c | 840.59$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.62 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 55c | 693.68$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.53 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Over | 62c | 599$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 56c | 526.62$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 42c | 333$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb95f…c250backed Over | 57c | 175.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 42c | 169.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 42c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…494dbacked Over | 58c | 132.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 63c | 81.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc71…b999backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…35d7backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…db97backed Over | 57c | 25.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…dcd3backed Over | 55c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: OGC Nice (-0.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.