NHL · resolved market
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Iowa Wild
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89a49630e7b35bb749c6c4a39a8d9a3d7de6a5acc755ab7694ae92f3111675b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Toronto Marlies, Iowa Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Toronto Marlies | 61c | 182$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Toronto Marlies | 62c | 135$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Toronto Marlies | 62c | 132$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Toronto Marlies | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Toronto Marlies | 59c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Toronto Marlies | 62c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Toronto Marlies | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Toronto Marlies | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Toronto Marlies | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Toronto Marlies | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Iowa Wild | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Iowa Wild | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Iowa Wild | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Iowa Wild | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Toronto Marlies | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Iowa Wild | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Iowa Wild | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Iowa Wild | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Toronto Marlies | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Iowa Wild | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Iowa Wild | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Iowa Wild | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Iowa Wild | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Iowa Wild | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Marlies | 59c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Iowa Wild | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Iowa Wild | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Iowa Wild | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Iowa Wild | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Iowa Wild | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Iowa Wild | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.