Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
SMU vs. California
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8c9e99cbf9f9183b6bbd01c0fc6b0e5b31cbd1e8d089c2a96cdda6688e61f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMUof SMU, California
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked California | 14c | 898.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed SMU | 63c | 791$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.67 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed California | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5389…1b02backed California | 44c | 210$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda2…45abbacked SMU | 56c | 198$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…770cbacked SMU | 56c | 145$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked California | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d6…cd3cbacked California | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a2…cc8cbacked California | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c6…6de4backed California | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked California | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3677…557fbacked California | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…a46cbacked California | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…7feebacked California | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…b9d7backed California | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…6692backed California | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…64ecbacked California | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4202…be6dbacked SMU | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…255dbacked California | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…191bbacked SMU | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fd…b58cbacked SMU | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…af2abacked SMU | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…dca4backed SMU | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa827…124ebacked SMU | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…0ad8backed SMU | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…0aefbacked SMU | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…e994backed SMU | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa064…725dbacked SMU | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…355fbacked SMU | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…bc1cbacked SMU | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…39debacked SMU | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.