Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Evansville vs. Murray State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb86aef8403ee684bef78e580cab00e66a810afebff3ec46f549da2ae32cf5fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murray Stateof Evansville, Murray State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab7c…eb58backed Murray State | 74c | 495$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…ec2dbacked Evansville | 26c | 486$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce8…b98dbacked Evansville | 26c | 244$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…ca5bbacked Evansville | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…de9cbacked Evansville | 26c | 88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb71…d73abacked Evansville | 27c | 82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…23b1backed Murray State | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5b…c483backed Murray State | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…e925backed Evansville | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…a2d3backed Murray State | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…6c5ebacked Evansville | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…1f2dbacked Murray State | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…53b5backed Murray State | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1f…a533backed Evansville | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…8547backed Murray State | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…c958backed Evansville | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070e…3518backed Murray State | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f61…82f2backed Murray State | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…8191backed Murray State | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e18…533bbacked Murray State | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e38…1c51backed Murray State | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…10c4backed Murray State | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…c765backed Murray State | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…6e0cbacked Murray State | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6de…5536backed Murray State | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…3b36backed Murray State | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b6a8backed Murray State | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…3e10backed Murray State | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53a…fc5ebacked Murray State | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…92d7backed Murray State | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…604dbacked Murray State | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.