Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Liberty vs. New Mexico State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd319fa23119da2606dc025c4f0b8375ec2f8553adf9c563cc94b86daf92d4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Libertyof Liberty, New Mexico State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked New Mexico State | 37c | 6,149$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.13 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Liberty | 63c | 6,073$3,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.83 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked New Mexico State | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Liberty | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…1206backed New Mexico State | 50c | 117$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…8794backed Liberty | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x794a…19c1backed New Mexico State | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…5a6dbacked Liberty | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…2410backed New Mexico State | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed New Mexico State | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…becfbacked Liberty | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +76%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…7853backed Liberty | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…2d18backed New Mexico State | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9f…7b9bbacked Liberty | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…07abbacked Liberty | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe289…e2a0backed New Mexico State | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…5cdfbacked Liberty | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…255bbacked New Mexico State | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…fb09backed New Mexico State | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…9948backed New Mexico State | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323f…8624backed Liberty | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…ddd9backed New Mexico State | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…7090backed Liberty | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed New Mexico State | 39c | 26.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Liberty | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…c9f0backed Liberty | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d60…d6adbacked Liberty | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…77eabacked Liberty | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…6817backed New Mexico State | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…e6aebacked Liberty | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…5c80backed Liberty | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…1e88backed New Mexico State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…1e46backed Liberty | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…c09cbacked Liberty | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…16f2backed Liberty | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2a…75cebacked Liberty | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777c…9bf4backed Liberty | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.