Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ognjen Milic vs Anton Arzhankin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd7cfed3f68a6a3f8c9915b50c154b88fbc62ae2b84b1fe9c36b3ffc9485c1b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ognjen Milicof Ognjen Milic, Anton Arzhankin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Anton Arzhankin | 6c | 2,480$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Anton Arzhankin | 8c | 1,525$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Anton Arzhankin | 7c | 970.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Anton Arzhankin | 30c | 836.17$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.09 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Anton Arzhankin | 13c | 478.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Ognjen Milic | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Ognjen Milic | 70c | 142.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Ognjen Milic | 71c | 141.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Anton Arzhankin | 47c | 93.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Anton Arzhankin | 47c | 91.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Anton Arzhankin | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…ddc0backed Anton Arzhankin | 38c | 78.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…cc28backed Anton Arzhankin | 16c | 76.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Anton Arzhankin | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Ognjen Milic | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Anton Arzhankin | 16c | 69.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Ognjen Milic | 77c | 66.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Ognjen Milic | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Ognjen Milic | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Ognjen Milic | 70c | 43.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…5bc2backed Ognjen Milic | 71c | 40.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Ognjen Milic | 75c | 38.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Ognjen Milic | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ognjen Milic | 63c | 22.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Ognjen Milic | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Ognjen Milic | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3785…f577backed Ognjen Milic | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.