College Football · resolved market
Old Dominion vs. Marshall
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce90cdfeb5c6887df5730e76bf8c6aadb66c53d35c63aba405a9c68e18269047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshallof Old Dominion, Marshall
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Marshall | 17c | 20,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,600 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Marshall | 18c | 2,816$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315.54 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Marshall | 16c | 1,100$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.39 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Marshall | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Marshall | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marshall | 17c | 718.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.06 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Old Dominion | 27c | 682.28$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…f264backed Marshall | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Marshall | 73c | 544.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.67 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Old Dominion | 32c | 425.54$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Old Dominion | 38c | 254.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…b14abacked Marshall | 66c | 152.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Marshall | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Old Dominion | 34c | 120.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Marshall | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Old Dominion | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Marshall | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Marshall | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Marshall | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Marshall | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Marshall | 54c | 96.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Marshall | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…1139backed Marshall | 23c | 78.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…4769backed Marshall | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed Old Dominion | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Marshall | 69c | 23.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Old Dominion vs. Marshallthis page
- Old Dominion vs. Marshall: O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Old Dominion (-14.5)Marshall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.