College Football · resolved market
Spread: Notre Dame (-21.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcedc37c67afeac1caab300507febfe32a7188c4f75d569d816f36401bfa94ae9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof Notre Dame, Boise State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Notre Dame | 52c | 6,535$3,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,403.16 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Boise State | 48c | 2,550$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Boise State | 51c | 1,146$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.58 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Boise State | 51c | 937.82$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.88 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Boise State | 44c | 596.4$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.89 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Boise State | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Boise State | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Boise State | 51c | 258$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Boise State | 49c | 202.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Boise State | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…a77dbacked Notre Dame | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…c4d6backed Boise State | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Boise State | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Notre Dame (-21.5)this page
- Boise State vs. Notre DameNotre Dame won
- Boise State vs. Notre Dame: O/U 62.5Under won
- O/U 63.5Under won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-20.5)Notre Dame won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.