MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf1d6d17cb7574887f7833eeae1b8026b24a697cd08a8f44c4de5dfab764bf10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 59c | 3,121$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.13 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 41c | 2,222$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.02 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 40c | 1,997$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.8 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 1,364$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.39 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 60c | 676.27$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.51 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 60c | 676.27$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.51 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 41c | 577$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.57 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 60c | 406.67$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.67 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Under | 59c | 390.16$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.97 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 43c | 386.31$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 59c | 326.97$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 60c | 325.33$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 59c | 289.86$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 43c | 247.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 33c | 201.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 67c | 191.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 60c | 174.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 108.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 43c | 89.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 40c | 87.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 59c | 82.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Under | 72c | 68.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Under | 59c | 64.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 58.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 56.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 55.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…6b6bbacked Under | 58c | 50.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 57c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 69c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 68c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue JaysColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- NRFI: Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.