TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: DOGSENT vs Level UP - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Level UPof DOGSENT, Level UP
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,800 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0386…2b1abacked Level UP1c1,424$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.7630543%131 W · 174 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Level UP30c595.21$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.9618745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Level UP28c375.21$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9340014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked DOGSENT70c362.24$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.976043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed DOGSENT78c234.87$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4715047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Level UP55c180$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8123347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed DOGSENT65c160.2$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1319664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked DOGSENT45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369440.4%38 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Level UP42c77.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.832,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed DOGSENT73c75.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5574549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Level UP58c34.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6740442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Level UP48c31.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0915033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed DOGSENT58c27.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0244645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked DOGSENT76c21.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.