NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf6c74062eabd432c8137a7e6334530a48baf300b4ffeb8e2b5936b12588d37e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Pistons | 61c | 1,203$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.23 | 444 | 59.7%265 W · 179 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Grizzlies | 37c | 1,015$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.38 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Grizzlies | 42c | 292.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 736 | 47.3%348 W · 388 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Grizzlies | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Grizzlies | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Pistons | 67c | 111$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Pistons | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Grizzlies | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Pistons | 30c | 63.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Grizzlies | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pistons | 40c | 53.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Grizzlies | 56c | 34.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Pistons | 43c | 31.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.