Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf8a08b46ae07166e5b6f00a1a0669c47fd8ba8f6d0124f70d4620f4ba5fff5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71da…bc9ebacked Yes | 44c | 440.34$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.07 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 56c | 280.16$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 245.81$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 75c | 205.2$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.69 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 25c | 192.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 59c | 160.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 57c | 157.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Yes | 22c | 98.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 41c | 95.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 42c | 58.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Yes | 20c | 57.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 55.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 66c | 19.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: Draw at halftime?this page
- AS Roma leading at halftime?No won
- Atalanta BC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.